The 2024 Presidential election is just months away. If you’re considering buying or selling a home, you might be curious about the potential effects of the election on the housing market.
Historically, presidential elections have only had a minor, temporary impact on the housing market.
Here’s the latest on what typically happens to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates during these periods.
During Presidential election years, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales in November.
Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, notes that while home sales are usually unchanged compared to non-election years, November tends to be slower due to uncertainty.
However, this slowdown is temporary, with home sales rebounding in December and continuing to rise the following year.
The graph shows annual home sales going back to 1978. Each year with a Presidential election is noted in blue. The year immediately after each election is green if existing home sales rose that year. The two orange bars represent the only years when home sales decreased after an election.
Home prices generally do not drop during election years. According to residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist, elections do not alter existing price trends in the market. Home prices tend to be resilient and typically rise year-over-year regardless of elections. Data from NAR indicates that home prices increased after seven of the last eight Presidential elections.
Just like the previous graph, this shows election years in blue. The only year when prices declined after an election is in orange. That was during the housing market crash, which was far from a typical year.
Data from Freddie Mac shows that in eight of the last eleven Presidential election years, mortgage rates decreased from July to November.
Most forecasts expect rates to ease slightly throughout the remainder of the year. If they’re right, this year will follow the trend of declining rates leading up to most previous elections. And if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be good news, as lower rates could mean a lower monthly payment.
While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually small and temporary.
As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:
“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”
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